The Headline Numbers
February 2026 read like a market quietly clearing its throat before spring. Prices were still lower than a year ago, but the month-over-month bounce, the brief drop in mortgage rates, and a tick up in pending contracts all pointed to demand waking from its winter lull. The data below comes from the Unlock MLS (Austin Board of Realtors) February 2026 Central Texas Housing Report for the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, cross-checked against Redfin and Realtor.com.
| Metric (Austin metro, Feb 2026) | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $412,000 | +2.9% | -3.6% |
| Active listings | 10,000 | roughly flat | -4.8% |
| Months of inventory | 6.5 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| Homes sold | 1,887 | seasonal rise | -3.6% |
| New listings | 3,861 | seasonal rise | -0.8% |
| Pending contracts | 2,690 | up | up |
| Sold-to-list ratio | 91.9% | ~flat | down |
The story in one line: prices remain below their 2025 level, but the seasonal turn arrived on schedule. The median climbed back above $412K after January dipped just over $400K, and pending contracts (a leading indicator of next month's closings) outnumbered closed sales by a wide margin, which is exactly what you want to see heading into March.
Inventory tells the other half of the story. At 6.5 months of supply, the metro sits in solidly buyer-friendly territory. A balanced market is generally considered 4 to 6 months, so Austin remains a step beyond balanced and into buyer leverage. If you want the longer view on how today's conditions compare across the year, our Austin housing market guide tracks the full-year trajectory.
What Changed From January
January 2026 opened the year soft. The metro median was $400,495, down 2.3% year-over-year, and closed sales ran well below the prior January. February reversed the direction on price without reversing the longer trend.
- Median price: up from $400,495 to $412,000, a roughly 2.9% monthly gain. This is largely seasonal. Buyers re-engage in February and the mix of homes going under contract shifts toward higher price points.
- Sales activity: closed sales and new listings both rose from January's depressed levels, the normal late-winter ramp.
- Inventory: months of supply edged up to 6.5 as new listings came online faster than they sold, keeping the pressure on sellers.
- Pending contracts: the 2,690 pending sales recorded in February set up a stronger March for closings, assuming rates cooperate.
The takeaway for anyone watching month to month: do not read February's price jump as a recovery. It is the calendar doing what it always does. The year-over-year number is the cleaner signal, and that one is still negative.
Year-Over-Year Picture
Against February 2025, the metro median fell 3.6%. That continues a now-familiar pattern of small annual declines as Austin keeps grinding down from its pandemic-era highs. Sales volume slipped about 3.6% year-over-year as well, and total dollar volume came in around $1.02 billion, down roughly 7% from a year earlier.
Where the market sits relative to its top is the number that surprises out-of-state buyers most. The Austin-Round Rock median peaked near $550,000 in May 2022. At $412,000, the metro is roughly 25% below that peak, one of the sharpest corrections of any major U.S. metro since 2022.
| Period | Metro median | Note |
|---|---|---|
| May 2022 (peak) | ~$550,000 | All-time monthly high |
| February 2025 | ~$427,000 | One year ago |
| January 2026 | $400,495 | Prior month |
| February 2026 | $412,000 | This report |
That correction is why Austin reads as a value story to relocators even though it remains expensive by Texas standards. Prices have reset, inventory is plentiful, and the frenzy of 2021-2022 is firmly in the rearview. If you are weighing a move, our moving to Austin relocation guide and the broader cost of living picture put these prices in context.
Sub-Market Breakdown
The metro median hides a wide spread. The City of Austin proper runs well above the metro figure, while the Williamson and Hays County suburbs sit below it. The county-level medians below come from the same February 2026 Unlock MLS report; the suburb estimates draw on recent city-level data from Zillow and our neighborhood guides, since the MLS report does not publish every city separately each month.
| Sub-market | Median (Feb 2026 area) | YoY | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| City of Austin | $540,000 | -2.7% | Urban core, condos and single-family |
| Williamson County | $395,850 | -5.4% | Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown, Leander |
| Hays County | $355,000 | -1.4% | Kyle, Buda, San Marcos, Dripping Springs area |
| Round Rock | ~$390K-$412K | down | Dell hub, RRISD schools |
| Cedar Park | ~$459K-$470K | down | Leander ISD, tech commuters |
| Georgetown | ~$400K-$423K | down | Sun City, historic square |
| Pflugerville | ~$390K-$409K | down | Most affordable Travis County entry |
Williamson County posted the steepest annual decline at 5.4%, reflecting heavy new-construction competition in Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown, and Leander, where builder incentives keep pulling the median down. Hays County held up better, with Pflugerville and the southern suburbs still drawing budget-focused buyers. For a side-by-side on which suburb fits which buyer, our best Austin suburbs comparison breaks down price, schools, and commute.
What Buyers and Sellers Are Seeing
The on-the-ground feel in February was steady and unhurried. Homes took roughly 88 to 90 days to sell on average, a far cry from the 5-to-10-day sales of 2021. The 91.9% sold-to-list ratio means a typical closed sale finished about 8% under the original asking price, before factoring in concessions.
For buyers, that adds up to real leverage. Price reductions remained common across the metro, more than a quarter of active listings carried a markdown at some point in their marketing window, and sellers were widely offering concessions such as rate buydowns and closing-cost credits. With 6.5 months of supply, there is little reason to rush or to waive contingencies.
For sellers, the message is the one that has held all year: price it right on day one. Overpriced homes sit, accumulate days on market, and eventually cut anyway, usually for less than they would have netted with sharp initial pricing. The homes that moved in February were the ones priced to the most recent comps, not last year's. Picking the right area still matters too; our guide to the best neighborhoods in Austin helps sellers understand where demand is deepest.
Mortgage Rate Context
February handed buyers a brief gift. According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed averaged 5.98% for the week of February 26, dipping below 6% for the first time in roughly three and a half years. By the week of March 12 it had climbed back to 6.11%, the highest in over a month.
That swing matters more than it looks. On a $412,000 home with 20% down (a $329,600 loan), the difference between 5.98% and 6.11% is only about $27 a month. But the gap from late 2025's 6.5%-plus rates down to the high-5s shaved closer to $100 a month off a typical payment, which is why pending contracts ticked up. Buyers who had a lender ready pounced during the dip.
The practical read for March buyers: rates in this range are volatile week to week, so getting fully pre-approved and watching the weekly survey can save real money. Pairing a temporary rate dip with a seller-funded buydown is the single most effective affordability lever available right now.
What to Watch in March
March is when Austin's spring season truly begins, and the early indicators favor a busier but not frenzied month.
- Pending pipeline: February's 2,690 pending contracts should translate into stronger March closings, likely nudging the median higher again on seasonal mix alone.
- Spring listings surge: new inventory typically peaks from March through May. Expect active listings to climb past February's 10,000, keeping buyer leverage intact even as activity rises.
- The Fed: the Federal Open Market Committee meets in mid-March. Markets do not expect a dramatic move, but the post-meeting language on inflation and future cuts will steer mortgage rates for the rest of spring. A dovish tone could pull rates back toward the high-5s; a hawkish one could push them past 6.25%.
- Prices: most local forecasters expect March to land near or slightly above February, with the year-over-year figure staying mildly negative. Think normalization, not rebound.
If you are a buyer, March's combination of rising inventory and still-soft prices is one of the more favorable windows in recent memory. If you are a seller, list early in the spring wave before the inventory peak crowds the field, and price to the February comps, not to your hopes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the median home price in Austin in February 2026?
The median sale price for the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro was $412,000 in February 2026, according to the Unlock MLS Central Texas Housing Report. That was down 3.6% from February 2025 but up roughly 2.9% from January 2026's $400,495. The City of Austin proper ran higher, with a median around $540,000.
Is Austin a buyer's or seller's market right now?
Austin is firmly a buyer's market in early 2026. With 6.5 months of inventory, around 10,000 active metro listings, homes selling at about 92% of list price, and average days on market near 90, buyers have meaningful choice and negotiating power. A balanced market is usually 4 to 6 months of supply, so the metro sits a step beyond balanced.
How far below its peak is the Austin housing market?
The Austin-Round Rock metro median peaked near $550,000 in May 2022. At $412,000 in February 2026, the market is roughly 25% below that high, one of the larger corrections among major U.S. metros since 2022. That reset is a big reason Austin reads as a relative value to out-of-state relocators despite still being pricey for Texas.
What are mortgage rates doing in Austin in early 2026?
The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate averaged 5.98% for the week of February 26, 2026, briefly dropping below 6% for the first time in about three and a half years, before rising to 6.11% by March 12. Rates have been volatile week to week, so buyers benefit from being fully pre-approved and timing a lock around dips. Seller-paid rate buydowns are widely available to lower the effective rate further.
Which Austin suburbs are most affordable in February 2026?
Hays County posted the lowest county median at $355,000, with Pflugerville among the most affordable Travis County options near $390,000 to $409,000. Williamson County, covering Round Rock, Georgetown, and Leander, came in around $395,850 and saw the steepest annual price decline at 5.4%, partly due to heavy builder incentives. These suburbs offer the clearest value for budget-focused and first-time buyers.